Relationships between satellite-measured thermal features and Alexandrium-imposed toxicity in the Gulf of Maine

Relationships between satellite-derived sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns and the occurrence of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxicity events caused by Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine are examined. Comparisons between surface A. fundyense cell distribution patterns and SST images indicate that highest cell concentrations are associated with colder waters of the eastern segment of the Gulf of Maine coastal current (EMCC) and that frontal zones at the edges of the EMCC often act as boundaries to surface distributions. Surface thermal patterns coincident with a May 2000 PSP toxic event and shellfish harvesting closure on the western Maine coast show enhanced connectivity between the EMCC and the western Gulf of Maine, suggesting transport linking A. fundyense cells in the EMCC to inshore areas of the western Gulf of Maine. Surface drifter data support such transport. Thirteen years (1990–2002) of toxicity data from eight monitoring sites along the coast of Maine and concurrent SST data show that in years of either large or very reduced toxicity, a consistent relationship exists between the timing and strength of fronts, taken as an indicator of alongshore connectivity, and the occurrence and strength of toxic events. Years with weak fronts and/or fronts that become established relatively late in the summer growing season are years of the strongest toxicity events in western Gulf of Maine. Years of early and strong fronts are years with few and/or weak toxicity events. Our results suggest that advective connections exist between cells present in the EMCC and toxicity along the western Gulf of Maine coast and that largescale hydrographic processes, characterized here as surface thermal patterns, influence A. fundyense populations in the western Gulf of Maine, either through delivery of actual cells or advection of advantageous conditions into the region. These data point to the utility of satellite and other coastal observing system data for the monitoring and prediction of conditions linked to toxic events in coastal waters. r 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.